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Variance is the amount of money you can win or lose in a session. In general, tournaments are less variant than cash games, since the buy-in limit is limited and the amount you earn in the prize.
In most high-low games the usual rank of poker hands is observed, so that an unsuited broken straight (7-5-4-3-2) wins low (see Morehead, Official Rules of Card Games). In a variant, based on Lowball, where only the low hand wins, a straight or a flush does not matter for a low hand. So the best low hand is 5-4-3-2-A, suited or not.
You want to be the most aggressive player at the table in cash games, especially low stakes, especially live. You want to be the one that’s doing the betting and raising. Just about every time I play in a cash game I’m the most aggressive player at the table because it puts me in a position to win the most money possible. But with that aggressive style comes the occasional big downswing.
It is therefore completely possible to have a low winrate with low-variance style and a high winrate with a high variance style etc. If we were to examine the relationship between variance and winrate across a variety of stakes it would perhaps look something like this graphic.
The biggest factor that affects variance is the aggressiveness of the table. If the table is very aggressive (especially if there are one or more people on tilt and you find pots getting capped preflop and beyond consistently) then count on high variance. If you do not tighten up several notches above the level of the table then you are going to go for a very very wild ride.
Your variance is going to be about as low as variance can get in poker (normally 0). But if you're a really good player, with a very high win rate, then the variance is going to be about as high as variance can get in poker. But this also depends on style. To maximize your win rate, you have to make deep runs and take risks. Bubbling and min.
I've run across this problem as well. There are some great posts out there in computing the running cumulative variance such as John Cooke's Accurately computing running variance post and the post from Digital explorations, Python code for computing sample and population variances, covariance and correlation coefficient.Just could not find any that were adapted to a rolling window.